How to Build a Weather Polymarket Bot

Why Weather Markets Are the Easiest Edge

Prediction markets are booming, and weather markets are arguably the most exploitable niche. Why? Because NOAA provides free, real-time weather data that most human traders are too lazy to check. While sports bettors are competing against sharp models from Vegas, weather traders are competing against people who glance at their phone's forecast and guess.

The numbers speak for themselves. Three bots on Polymarket are currently crushing weather markets:

• automatedAItradingbot — +$72,500 total profit, running since early 2025
• 0x594edB9 — +$39,300/month average, specializing in temperature markets
• aboss — +$42,400 total, focusing on precipitation and storm events

These bots share a common strategy: they pull NOAA forecast data, compare it to current market prices, and trade when the market is mispriced relative to the actual weather models. It sounds simple because it is.

The Stack: OpenClaw + Simmer Markets + NOAA

Here is the technology stack you will be building with:

• OpenClaw — The open-source AI agent framework that handles the bot logic, scheduling, and execution
• Simmer Markets — Provides the market-making interface and liquidity management layer for Polymarket
• NOAA API — Free government weather data (forecasts, historical, alerts) updated every hour
• Telegram — For monitoring trades and receiving alerts from your bot in real time

Step 1: Install OpenClaw

OpenClaw is available as an npm package. Install it globally so you can use the CLI from anywhere:

npm install -g openclaw
openclaw init weather-bot
cd weather-bot

This creates a new project directory with the standard OpenClaw agent structure: a config.yaml, a skills/ directory, and an agent.js entry point.

Configure Your Agent Identity

Edit config.yaml and set your agent name and description. This matters because Polymarket shows bot names publicly:

agent:
  name: WeatherEdge
  description: Automated weather prediction market trader
  version: 1.0.0
  schedule: "*/2 * * * *"  # Run every 2 minutes

Step 2: Onboard to Polymarket

You need a Polymarket account with API access. Here is how to set that up:

1. Go to Polymarket and create an account
2. Fund your account with USDC (minimum $50 recommended to start, $500+ for meaningful returns)
3. Generate your API key from the Settings > Developer section
4. Add your API key to the OpenClaw vault: openclaw vault set POLYMARKET_API_KEY your-key-here

Step 3: Create a Telegram Bot for Monitoring

You want real-time notifications when your bot places trades. Setting up a Telegram bot takes about two minutes:

1. Open Telegram and message @BotFather
2. Send /newbot and follow the prompts to name your bot
3. Copy the bot token and save it: openclaw vault set TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN your-token
4. Get your chat ID by messaging your new bot and checking the API: https://api.telegram.org/bot<TOKEN>/getUpdates
5. Save the chat ID: openclaw vault set TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID your-chat-id

Step 4: Connect Simmer Markets

Simmer Markets provides the smart order routing and market-making layer. Instead of placing simple limit orders, Simmer helps you:

• Manage order books efficiently across multiple weather markets simultaneously
• Auto-adjust your positions as new NOAA data comes in
• Handle the CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) complexity that Polymarket uses under the hood

openclaw install simmer-markets
openclaw vault set SIMMER_API_KEY your-simmer-key

Step 5: Install the Weather Skill

The weather skill is the core intelligence of your bot. It connects to the NOAA API, parses forecasts, and generates trading signals:

openclaw install skill-noaa-weather

This skill provides three main functions:

• getForecast(city, days) — Returns structured forecast data for a specific city
• compareToMarket(forecast, marketPrice) — Calculates the edge between NOAA probability and market price
• generateSignal(edge, config) — Produces a BUY/SELL/HOLD signal based on your configured thresholds

Step 6: Configure Your Trading Parameters

This is where the real strategy comes in. Based on analysis of the top-performing weather bots, here are the optimal parameters:

trading:
  entry_threshold: 0.15      # Enter when edge > 15%
  exit_threshold: 0.45       # Exit when edge < 4.5% (take profit)
  max_position_size: 2.00    # $2 max per market
  cities:
    - new-york
    - chicago
    - los-angeles
    - miami
    - seattle
    - denver
  scan_interval: "*/2 * * * *"  # Every 2 minutes
  market_types:
    - temperature-high
    - temperature-low
    - precipitation
    - snowfall

Why These Numbers Work

The 15% entry threshold means you only trade when the NOAA data gives you a significant edge over the market price. This filters out noise and ensures you are only entering high-conviction trades. The bots earning $30K+ per month consistently use a 12-18% entry threshold.

The $2 max position size keeps risk manageable while still allowing meaningful returns across dozens of simultaneous markets. With 6 cities and 4 market types each, you are watching 24 markets. Even small positions compound quickly.

The 2-minute scan interval is critical. Weather data updates hourly, but market prices shift constantly. Scanning every 2 minutes lets you catch mispricings before other bots do. Faster than 2 minutes adds unnecessary API load without meaningful advantage.

Step 7: Deploy and Monitor

Start your bot in paper trading mode first to verify everything works:

openclaw run --mode paper --verbose

Watch the Telegram channel for trade notifications. After 48 hours of paper trading with consistent signals, switch to live:

openclaw run --mode live

Expected Returns and Risk

Based on the performance of the three reference bots, a well-configured weather bot with $500 in capital can expect:

• Conservative estimate: $200-$500/month (40-100% monthly ROI)
• Aggressive estimate: $1,000-$3,000/month with $2,000+ capital
• Maximum drawdown: Typically 10-20% of capital during unusual weather events

Remember: prediction markets carry real financial risk. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. These returns are based on historical performance and are not guaranteed.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. Ignoring fees: Polymarket charges ~2% on trades. Your edge must exceed this to be profitable.
2. Over-sizing positions: Keep positions small across many markets rather than large on a few.
3. Not monitoring: Set up Telegram alerts and check your bot daily for the first two weeks.
4. Stale data: Make sure your NOAA data feed is actually updating. A broken API connection means your bot is trading blind.
5. Chasing storms: Extreme weather events create volatile markets. The best bots reduce position sizes during high-uncertainty periods.